Osama bin Laden is dead! The news came into light in the wee hours of morning today and it is a matter of great jubilation for all those who despise terrorism. Now there are reports saying that the operation was conducted by American Special Forces in the wake of confirm intelligence and Osama bin Laden was shot down in garrison city of Abbotabad just two kilometers away from Pakistan Military Academy Kakool. However, western media and driven by frenzy Indian media failed to see the real objectives of operation. We – in this post – will take a closer look to the incidents taken place before this operation and demise of Osama.
- ISI and Pakistani Security establishment toughens tones with respect to American and CIA policies.
- Raymond Davis captured in Pakistani city of Lahore and returned to America after the payment of blood money called Diyat to the victims of the slain men. Americans faced the wrath of public and pooh-poohed the payment of Diyat and placed it on head of Saudis.
- ISI Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha went to Washington and met with CIA Chief Leon Panetta and looked into the eye of former and told him key Pakistani demands.
- Panetta told media that Americans ought to have good working relationship with ISI and confessed that there had been few differences in the opinion but they now have been worked out for the better cooperation in the future.
- Americans approved the transfer of Raven Drone aircrafts to Pakistan as efforts to counter insurgency in Pakistan. Transfer of the Drone technology was the key demand of Pakistan. The concern has been communicated to Panetta in Pasha-Panetta meeting in Washington. Interestingly, meeting took place in Pakistani Embassy in Washington. Imran Khan staged a sit-in on the main supply route of NATO Forces in Peshawar.
- Americans communicated Indians through back channel that they have to develop a more workable strategy with respect to Pakistan and Indian Security Establishment reaches ISI and Pakistani Security Establishment that they believe to be still in-charge of Pakistani India Policy. It should be noted also that Trade Talks were held between Pakistan and India and it was decided unanimously that Indians will abolish all Pakistan specific tariff barriers.
- American Ambassador to India resigns and mentions his personal differences and reasons along with official for the resignation. The Ambassador always took tougher stand on Pakistan whenever it came to satisfying Indian sentiments regarding terror-outfits in Pakistan and Mumbai attacks. Just after the resignation, Indian Security establishment gave the contract of the induction of New Generation aircrafts in its fleet to European companies instead of American companies. American Pentagon strongly deplored the cancellation of the contract.
- White House and Department of Foreign Affairs issues a statement that Indians should look beyond Pakistan. They have a role to play in Afghanistan but they should look beyond Pakistan. Now here we see that Americans who had been professing greater role of India in Afghanistan phrased their sentence so that it became evident that Americans are now seeing Post America AFPAK where Pakistan’s interests will be protected and Indo-Pak stance on Afghanistan will be neutralized.
- Army Chief Kiyani, ISI Chief Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha and PM Gillani went to Kabul in one plane and held important talks with Afghan President Karzai and broke the negotiations with Taliban. Americans supported the negotiations with Taliban and Saudi Arabia also provided ample base and support for the negotiations. Al-Qaeeda showed its displeasure over the negotiations and Taliban in Pakistan vowed to mow the talks through Suicide attacks. In the meanwhile Zardari strikes a deal with PML(Q) and power sharing formula has been agreed upon. PML(N) Shahbaz Sharif meets Army Chief late in the night and went straight to Army House.
- News of Helicopter crash flashed on TV and then at 4 AM President Obama confirms that Osama bin Laden is dead!!!
So we see that the events that happened before the demise of Laden show clearly that ISI gained its key demands and handed over Laden to Americans which are desperately looking for a graceful exit strategy from Afghanistan. With Osama dead, Americans will pack up from Afghan stage and will call back the soldiers. This was of course a threat to Karzai who feared that Taliban will definitely recapture Afghanistan as they are already very strong in Southern Afghanistan such as in Kandahar where recently 500 Taliban escaped after breaking a Jail. So what everyone got out of this deal?
- Pakistan: ISI got its role back with less Indian interference in Afghanistan and Taliban representation in Afghan National Government. Army got Drone technology and closure of Indian Espionage missions on Afghan side of Durand Line that are supporting Terrorists inside Pakistan. Zardari earned his two more years and a deal of power sharing was finalized with PML (Q) that Zardari dubbed as Qatil (murderer) League on the occasion of Soyam of Slain Benazir Bhutto. PML (N) earned its Punjab government and assurance that Punjab Government will not be toppled through in-house seat adjustment between PML (Q) and PPP.
- Afghanistan: Karzai got his presidency. Taliban got their recognition in Afghan Game of Power and their long demand of American departure from region is met though clandestinely.
- America: USA won its safe and graceful exit. Obama had this one feather to put in his cap and especially when Elections are in hand. American public was calmed down by the corpse of Laden. American Soldiers won their departure to their homeland. Key American motive of killing Laden has been fulfilled.
So everyone is the winner here… Now according to Pakistani perspective, death of Laden brings an end to Laden’s money transfers. Osama has been solely funding many insurgent groups so it is very likely that their sole source of money would die. Then with Afghan Taliban on the negotiation table, there will be a demotivation for the religious zealots in Pakistan. It is very likely that Pakistan Army will launch a spring offensive in selected areas of North Waziristan to meet another key demand of American Establishment before their departure and this operation will be very selective. Army will target only those factions of Taliban that are working against Pakistani Police and Establishment. We will see that there will be few attacks in and out as retaliation of the demise of Laden but they aren’t of importance as they will be due to desperation and anger. Taliban and Al-Qaeeda after the demise of their central figure (that was dubbed more or less divine) will lose the spirits. It is also a great below to Wahhabism. It is very likely that Saudis agreed to help USA and ISI in the wake of recent wake-up drive in Arab world. Another astonishing fact is that Saudi-Pak relationship that went cold after Zardari walked into the corridors of power saw a new boost when Minister of State Hina Rabbani Khar visited the Kingdom.
This is a clear indication that Saudis are seeing an end to their kingdom if they wouldn’t deal with the growing insecurities in the minority or oppressed communities in the Kingdom especially in the provinces that share border with Bahrain and Gulf of Aqba.
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